Recession: Whose Numbers?

The Federal Reserve today announced that the U.S. Recession is over. Everything, nearly everywhere, is stabilizing or even going up. I’m sure my contractor friend whom I just spoke to last evening will be glad to hear that. His experience suggests, “Everything is still really slow.”
My engineer acquaintance who works in the auto design/parts industry says he’s still got his job but he doesn’t ever expect to see back the wage cuts he’s given up in the last two years—or the involuntary furloughs. Those wages are gone forever.
A lot of people who are still working seem to be in that boat. No raises, reduced pay, days without pay—but the economists cheerfully list those folks as “employed”. That’s not going to help the retail sector—which needs to be a HUGE part of any economic boom.
Speaking of retail—have you walked into a store and tried to find a clerk lately? My wife took a job in J.C. Penney’s back in 2001. (She started on 9/11, an interesting omen.) She worked in the catalog department where orders are delivered and picked up.
When she began, eight full and part timers worked in catalog; at busy times often there were three of them on duty. Three people worked in the watch repair section next to it. The store had a full time telephone operator. They soon remodeled so that watch repair and catalog were manned by the same staff, getting rid of several people.
They laid off the phone operator and had catalog answer the phone—which got to be tricky while you were repairing a watch and trying to locate a recently arrived order from the catalog, and the phone rang. You absolutely were NOT allowed to put the phone down while attending to an in-store customer. Two or three extra arms might have helped.
She quit working there several years ago when it became too hectic. The other day we went into the store to pick up something from the catalog. One girl was there—to do it all. Walk through Walmart or any other large store—see if you can find a body to answer your questions.
The other day I chatted with the man who quit being grocery manager at Meijers (the chain from whom Walmart took most of its ideas about big stores). I asked why. He told me how many tens of thousands more items he was now supposed to keep stocked—and how many fewer people he had to do it with. He found the smaller produce section more congenial. He actually got to go home.
Many of those missing clerks don’t appear on unemployment lists. They were already working less than the twenty hours needed to apply for unemployment—or get any benefits. My wife watched clerk after clerk get cut from full time with benefits, to part time with none. These are the quiet little people who just disappear. They don’t buy a lot, either.
Around here another house sold, second this year amid all the signs. He sold it for what he paid for it five years ago—and he had to write a cheque to pay for the buyer’s closing costs. (The buyer had asked for help with the down payment. This he refused to do.) It was the only offer he had.
Whose number does the Fed use when it says a recession is over? Do they just look at numbers or do they ever talk to real people? I got an insight a few years ago. At the time I was helping out by doing a lot of the grocery shopping.
Washington kept saying there was little, low to none, inflation. Every week I’d go in the store and find this had gone up a dime, that item was now six ounces instead of eight (same price), and my total bill was up. What do they mean “no inflation”?
Then one day I read that grocery items aren’t included on the list of goods whose prices determine the amount of inflation. Oh. Why? Because food is too volatile.
Translation: Food inflates too much. Putting it on the list might just make somebody look like a liar and a fool. Rejoice! The Recession is over. Ignore next week’s paycut.