The past few weeks have not been good for the ulcers of anyone trying to run this country. Stocks, for instance, plunged a thousand points in a single day—and no one knows why. Computers becoming peevish with other computers? Mindless panic?
Who knows? No one. They went down a thousand and then came back up a few hundred points—losing all the gains they’ve made so far this year. Which way will they go next. Again, no one really knows.
The Staten Island Ferry loses it and piles into the landing slip. (I remember all the times I stood at the bow and watched this controlled collision as we piled into the slips, bouncing from side to side as we finally settled in. But this one was for real.) Several people actually got hurt. The engine seems to have raced, Toyota style, out of control. (I used to imagine this happening years ago—this time it really did. Again, why?)
Then, again, there’s the little present the Pakistani Taliban left for us in Times Square. We can all heave a great sigh of relief that the bomb didn’t go off—the perpetrators were inept, the disable vets who sell souvenirs in the area were alert, we were lucky.
We were lucky in 1993 when some inept bombers tried to blow up a World Trade Center tower with a van full of explosives. It went boom; the building stayed up. We heaved a great sign of relief and congratulated ourselves, just like now.
Eight years later the same folk came back with a better plan—hijack airplanes full of fuel. Both towers came down. Our congratulations were premature. Yes, boys and girls, the Taliban and Al Qaeda have the ability to learn.
Oh, and Afghanistan is beginning to remind us more and more of Vietnam. The generals in Kabul are sounding ever more optimistic. The surge is working; we are winning against the Taliban. Of course, those generals are ignoring the fact that a counter surge of Taliban fighters is pouring in every night from Pakistani recruitment centers.
The top brass in Saigon remained optimistic about the course of the war right up until North Vietnamese tanks rolled into town and renamed it Ho Chi Minh City. Then, finally, everybody scrambled to put his Vietnamese mistress on a plane and get out.
Kabul seems to be living in the same dream world. The troops on the ground in dangerous rural areas don’t see quite as many signs of victory as the generals do. But the generals aren’t facing the same waves of incoming Taliban fighters. A Brit in Kabul has opened a bar and grill named after the hill where Afghani guerillas slaughtered an entire British army in 1842. Maybe the top echelon should go have dinner there.
The fancy cap BP Oil built to contain the spill in the Gulf didn’t work. They are down to their last hope—drilling a new well to relieve the pressure and capping the old with cement. This is all going to happen a mile down in the water under unbelievable pressures.
We hope. And if it does, it will take another couple months or so. Meanwhile gallons and gallons of crude oil are spilling into some of the finest fishing grounds in the world. The Icelandic volcano is still shutting down flights all over Europe.
That ash can play hell with jet engines—it can pit aircraft windows so badly you can’t see out of them. Nature keeps reminding us that she is NOT our friend—at best, she is indifferent or neutral. But she has no intent to benefit us.
And, of course, it is becoming less and less legal to pray to the divinity we have, historically, believed could control nature. So, prayerless, ignorant of basic causes, unable to control natural forces, we find ourselves completely at their mercy.
The White House, the Street and our troops can only ask, “What next?”
If we suggested that everyone pray—which we have done throughout our history—we would have whole cadres of federal judges and civil libertarians telling us we are violating the Constitution itself. So, “what next?”
Showing posts with label Afghanistan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Afghanistan. Show all posts
Sunday, May 9, 2010
Wednesday, April 7, 2010
Afghanistan--Show Me The Way To Go Home!
I dislike very much when something I have thought about threatens to come to pass. Several months ago I wrote about the very tenuous supply line we have for troops and materiel coming into (and out of) Afghanistan.
I repeat again: the country is landlocked. To the west lies Iran—somehow I don’t see them letting our supply or troop delivery planes fly through their airspace any time soon. To the east lies Pakistan—a dubious ally with very good reasons not to let large amounts of American equipment or troops traverse its territory.
These two nations meet south of Afghanistan—blocking access to the sea. To the north lie a series of former Soviet Republics—from west to east, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan—all primarily Muslim, all still in the Russia sphere of influence.
Just north of Tajikistan lies the smallest and poorest of the former Soviet Republics, Kyrgyzstan—which also borders Russia and China. Over half the country is situated 10,000 feet up, which does nothing to add to its wealth .
One way the tiny nation (five million souls) thought to make a little spare cash was to allow the United States to build a major airbase there. The US Transit Center at Manas International Airport just outside of the capital city of Biskek has become a crucial link in our supply chain.
That worked wonderfully as long as the regime that granted us the rights to that base remained in power. Last week that regime came to an end. It seems that the populace became peevish over things like a 200% raise in utility rates—and major corruption by the pro-US government.
Riots broke out and people tossed the old regime out. The apparent victors are calling for closing down the American base.
So far the base reports it is operating normally. The shooting seems to be limited to the capital city for now. Even if the base is shut down, that will not immediately choke us to death in Afghanistan. But it should sound a whole lot of alarm bells in both the Pentagon and Kabul.
What happened in Kyrgyzstan could very well happen in other Muslim states north of Afghanistan and even in Pakistan. We should start—if we haven’t already—thinking very seriously about how we are going to get a whole lot of Americans and NATO types home again if the not-too-unthinkable happens sometime in the future.
Russia has influence there. She is not our friend. She may, for the moment prefer that neighboring Muslim radicals spend their time shooting at Americans rather than Russians—or she may decide to propitiate a few Muslims by inducing her former republics to shut down our northern supply line. I dislike the thought that we are in anyway at the mercy of the former home of the KGB.
Is China our friend? She, too, may not mind us shooting up a few Islamic extremists at the moment. But what if her western Muslim tribesmen become fractious and she starts looking for ways of making them happier?
The world north of Afghanistan could turn upside down at any moment—and we have no real control over the situation. Were I a general in Afghanistan that reality would not make me a happy man.
In Iraq, at least, we have access to the sea. We can come and go—right now—pretty much as we please. In Afghanistan we remain dependent upon a little help from some very dubious friends.
And we think we’ve got troubles NOW. Oh my.
I repeat again: the country is landlocked. To the west lies Iran—somehow I don’t see them letting our supply or troop delivery planes fly through their airspace any time soon. To the east lies Pakistan—a dubious ally with very good reasons not to let large amounts of American equipment or troops traverse its territory.
These two nations meet south of Afghanistan—blocking access to the sea. To the north lie a series of former Soviet Republics—from west to east, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan—all primarily Muslim, all still in the Russia sphere of influence.
Just north of Tajikistan lies the smallest and poorest of the former Soviet Republics, Kyrgyzstan—which also borders Russia and China. Over half the country is situated 10,000 feet up, which does nothing to add to its wealth .
One way the tiny nation (five million souls) thought to make a little spare cash was to allow the United States to build a major airbase there. The US Transit Center at Manas International Airport just outside of the capital city of Biskek has become a crucial link in our supply chain.
That worked wonderfully as long as the regime that granted us the rights to that base remained in power. Last week that regime came to an end. It seems that the populace became peevish over things like a 200% raise in utility rates—and major corruption by the pro-US government.
Riots broke out and people tossed the old regime out. The apparent victors are calling for closing down the American base.
So far the base reports it is operating normally. The shooting seems to be limited to the capital city for now. Even if the base is shut down, that will not immediately choke us to death in Afghanistan. But it should sound a whole lot of alarm bells in both the Pentagon and Kabul.
What happened in Kyrgyzstan could very well happen in other Muslim states north of Afghanistan and even in Pakistan. We should start—if we haven’t already—thinking very seriously about how we are going to get a whole lot of Americans and NATO types home again if the not-too-unthinkable happens sometime in the future.
Russia has influence there. She is not our friend. She may, for the moment prefer that neighboring Muslim radicals spend their time shooting at Americans rather than Russians—or she may decide to propitiate a few Muslims by inducing her former republics to shut down our northern supply line. I dislike the thought that we are in anyway at the mercy of the former home of the KGB.
Is China our friend? She, too, may not mind us shooting up a few Islamic extremists at the moment. But what if her western Muslim tribesmen become fractious and she starts looking for ways of making them happier?
The world north of Afghanistan could turn upside down at any moment—and we have no real control over the situation. Were I a general in Afghanistan that reality would not make me a happy man.
In Iraq, at least, we have access to the sea. We can come and go—right now—pretty much as we please. In Afghanistan we remain dependent upon a little help from some very dubious friends.
And we think we’ve got troubles NOW. Oh my.
Tuesday, March 9, 2010
Iraq, Afghanistan--Are We Winning?
Once again the question is upon us: when is a won war a lost war? When is a lost war a won war? Or when is a won war really a won war; when is a lost war really, really a lost war? They’re even trotting out the old “Mission Accomplished” banner that Bush had the Navy fly seven years ago when he proclaimed Iraq a won war.
Are we winning in Afghanistan? Are we winning in Iraq? Do you remember how people wanted to know if we won in Korea and Vietnam? What constitutes actually winning a war?
Let’s get something straight. Many of know the old saying, “War is diplomacy by other means”. That is partially true—certainly coming out with a diplomatic advantage goes some of the way toward deciding who a won and who lost.
But more importantly—war is an INVESTMENT like any other investment. You invest money, materiel, human lives—and you look for a return. You “win” by getting a decent to good return on your investment. Ghoulish sounding—but true.
Let’s go back over an instance in which the winners and losers are very clearly indicated—World War II. When the shooting stopped, British, French, Russian and American troops were all waving bottles of vodka, German beer and Saki, cheering madly, and the Germans and Japanese were standing around looking very dejected. Obviously the first four won, right?
Wrong. Let’s look at how it actually played out.
There was one big winner—the United States. For us the war was like walking into a casino, putting a dollar in the slot and finding ourselves up to our shoulders in money. We’ve lived off the proceeds of the Japanese, British, French, Belgium and Dutch empires ever since. Nobody in history ever won a war like we did in 1945.
There were two nations for whom the war was essentially a wash—Japan and Germany. In the end, they rebuilt their factories and are possibly better off today than they would have been if the war had never been fought. In the category of “winners”, they may come in a decent second to the United States.
There were two participants who really didn’t do all that well for several decades after the war and may or may not possibly be coming out of their economic funk today. Maybe. Russia and China.
Then come the major losers. Britain, France, Holland and Belgium. The biggest loser of all was, of course, Britain. Immediately after that comes France. They ruled most of the globe in 1939. Twenty years later they had about the international clout of Portugal or Rwanda. Their economies were far behind Japan’s or Germany’s.
Skip the flag waving and the cheering. Who really won is whoever got a decent return on the investment.
It’s all about the money. Just like your 401K. It’s about the money. If you made money, you won; if you lost money, you lost the war.
One of the reasons we lose sight of this reality is that—politically—you cannot say this to the people who go to the front to do the fighting and dying. So government propaganda—in all warring nations—has to obfuscate the actual causes and aims of the war.
Everybody’s national history books follow the national line on the war and reality gets lost. This is nice for the vets and the bereaved mothers—but it makes it all but impossible to take a dispassionate look at a prospective war (such as Iraq in early 2003) and weigh its pro’s and con’s as if it were any other investment. Which we should do.
Tomorrow let’s look at how we lose sight of reality when looking at the possibility of war.
Are we winning in Afghanistan? Are we winning in Iraq? Do you remember how people wanted to know if we won in Korea and Vietnam? What constitutes actually winning a war?
Let’s get something straight. Many of know the old saying, “War is diplomacy by other means”. That is partially true—certainly coming out with a diplomatic advantage goes some of the way toward deciding who a won and who lost.
But more importantly—war is an INVESTMENT like any other investment. You invest money, materiel, human lives—and you look for a return. You “win” by getting a decent to good return on your investment. Ghoulish sounding—but true.
Let’s go back over an instance in which the winners and losers are very clearly indicated—World War II. When the shooting stopped, British, French, Russian and American troops were all waving bottles of vodka, German beer and Saki, cheering madly, and the Germans and Japanese were standing around looking very dejected. Obviously the first four won, right?
Wrong. Let’s look at how it actually played out.
There was one big winner—the United States. For us the war was like walking into a casino, putting a dollar in the slot and finding ourselves up to our shoulders in money. We’ve lived off the proceeds of the Japanese, British, French, Belgium and Dutch empires ever since. Nobody in history ever won a war like we did in 1945.
There were two nations for whom the war was essentially a wash—Japan and Germany. In the end, they rebuilt their factories and are possibly better off today than they would have been if the war had never been fought. In the category of “winners”, they may come in a decent second to the United States.
There were two participants who really didn’t do all that well for several decades after the war and may or may not possibly be coming out of their economic funk today. Maybe. Russia and China.
Then come the major losers. Britain, France, Holland and Belgium. The biggest loser of all was, of course, Britain. Immediately after that comes France. They ruled most of the globe in 1939. Twenty years later they had about the international clout of Portugal or Rwanda. Their economies were far behind Japan’s or Germany’s.
Skip the flag waving and the cheering. Who really won is whoever got a decent return on the investment.
It’s all about the money. Just like your 401K. It’s about the money. If you made money, you won; if you lost money, you lost the war.
One of the reasons we lose sight of this reality is that—politically—you cannot say this to the people who go to the front to do the fighting and dying. So government propaganda—in all warring nations—has to obfuscate the actual causes and aims of the war.
Everybody’s national history books follow the national line on the war and reality gets lost. This is nice for the vets and the bereaved mothers—but it makes it all but impossible to take a dispassionate look at a prospective war (such as Iraq in early 2003) and weigh its pro’s and con’s as if it were any other investment. Which we should do.
Tomorrow let’s look at how we lose sight of reality when looking at the possibility of war.
Saturday, March 6, 2010
As Yoda Sees Politics, the Economy and War
The nation feels to me like the clutch is in. Do any of you remember the old stick shift cars—where you disengaged the engine from the wheels by putting in the clutch with your left foot? There was that moment when you felt like nothing was happening.
More frightening were the old propeller driven passenger aircraft. At about what seemed like 50 feet off the ground, the pilot changed the pitch of the propellers. In effect, he put the clutch in. It felt for a second like you were hanging motionless in mid air—until the propellers re-engaged and pulled the airship forward.
Each time that happened I’d remember all the headlines I’d read about planes that got “about 50 feet off the ground” and crashed. That was always the white knuckle moment for me in flying. (Jets never quite did that.)
That’s how Washington, Iraq, Afghanistan, the economy, health care reform, the currency problems in Europe, our relations with China (and nearly everyone else) all feel to me. The clutch seems to be in. It doesn’t feel like anything is moving in any definite way.
Perhaps Yoda from Star Wars put it best: “The future, clouded it is.” One article says the economy is showing lots of silver around the linings—the next says we can count on a wave of foreclosures this year and major unemployment for three more years.
Each cites its expert sources. One says we are winning in Afghanistan; the next suggests that the ancient Afghan will to wreak vengeance isn’t going to go away just because we send in more troops and make nice to some village elders.
A single kid with explosives in his underwear makes flying an almost unendurable experience for many Americans. We are warned that international terror is as real a danger today as it ever was in 2001. But when was the last plane actually brought down?
On health care, we are told Obama has found the magic bullet. He will use an old Republican trick of getting the bill passed under the Reconciliation Process where only 51 votes are needed—instead of the filibuster busting sixty.
How many Democrats are looking at the polls (measuring how Americans feel about this particular 2000 page monstrosity of a porked out reform bill) and allowing the urge to survive move them toward a negative vote? Or just an abstention?
Nobody’s counting publicly. Pelosi has a margin of five votes to play with—are they all still with her? What are the chances for success if Congress does what a lot of people are calling for and starts all over again, with something people can understand?
What’s really going on in Iraq? Last week’s “Newsweek” reran the picture of Bush on the carrier with the sign, “Mission Accomplished”. Is it, finally—after seven bitter years? Or is there another joker or two in the deck like there was in 2003?
The DOW seems to be content to jiggle around in the mid-10,000 point range. A little up, a little down, even a bit sideways. Somebody says, “Boo” and down she goes; somebody shouts, “Hurrah” and up she jumps. What’s real?
I’m just sitting in my seat—like in the old airplanes—waiting for the props to start pulling air again. Even the Olympics didn’t seem as much fun as they used to. Does anybody have a clear idea whether we’re headed up or down?
“The future, clouded it is.”
More frightening were the old propeller driven passenger aircraft. At about what seemed like 50 feet off the ground, the pilot changed the pitch of the propellers. In effect, he put the clutch in. It felt for a second like you were hanging motionless in mid air—until the propellers re-engaged and pulled the airship forward.
Each time that happened I’d remember all the headlines I’d read about planes that got “about 50 feet off the ground” and crashed. That was always the white knuckle moment for me in flying. (Jets never quite did that.)
That’s how Washington, Iraq, Afghanistan, the economy, health care reform, the currency problems in Europe, our relations with China (and nearly everyone else) all feel to me. The clutch seems to be in. It doesn’t feel like anything is moving in any definite way.
Perhaps Yoda from Star Wars put it best: “The future, clouded it is.” One article says the economy is showing lots of silver around the linings—the next says we can count on a wave of foreclosures this year and major unemployment for three more years.
Each cites its expert sources. One says we are winning in Afghanistan; the next suggests that the ancient Afghan will to wreak vengeance isn’t going to go away just because we send in more troops and make nice to some village elders.
A single kid with explosives in his underwear makes flying an almost unendurable experience for many Americans. We are warned that international terror is as real a danger today as it ever was in 2001. But when was the last plane actually brought down?
On health care, we are told Obama has found the magic bullet. He will use an old Republican trick of getting the bill passed under the Reconciliation Process where only 51 votes are needed—instead of the filibuster busting sixty.
How many Democrats are looking at the polls (measuring how Americans feel about this particular 2000 page monstrosity of a porked out reform bill) and allowing the urge to survive move them toward a negative vote? Or just an abstention?
Nobody’s counting publicly. Pelosi has a margin of five votes to play with—are they all still with her? What are the chances for success if Congress does what a lot of people are calling for and starts all over again, with something people can understand?
What’s really going on in Iraq? Last week’s “Newsweek” reran the picture of Bush on the carrier with the sign, “Mission Accomplished”. Is it, finally—after seven bitter years? Or is there another joker or two in the deck like there was in 2003?
The DOW seems to be content to jiggle around in the mid-10,000 point range. A little up, a little down, even a bit sideways. Somebody says, “Boo” and down she goes; somebody shouts, “Hurrah” and up she jumps. What’s real?
I’m just sitting in my seat—like in the old airplanes—waiting for the props to start pulling air again. Even the Olympics didn’t seem as much fun as they used to. Does anybody have a clear idea whether we’re headed up or down?
“The future, clouded it is.”
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