Still More This and That

Right after the Air France Airbus went down in the Atlantic on its way from Sao Paulo to Paris, several talking heads appeared on television to assure us that today’s aircraft simply cannot be shot down by turbulence or lightning strikes.
One of the experts opined that there was at least a 50% likelihood that a terrorist’s bomb had brought the plane down. It was SO unlikely that a storm could have done it. Of course, today we are told that a similar flight was threatened by an anonymous phone call in May. It might have been a bomb.
Or it might have been an all too human hubris. All the experts assured us that the Titanic wasn’t sinkable, either. What comes to my mind is some dialogue common to episode after episode of “Star Trek”.
The Enterprise would be under attack by Klingons, Romulans or some space/time anomaly. The order would go out, “Divert all power to the port shields”. And we would all wonder what might happen if somebody decided to shoot at the starboard side.
The Air France plane faced a massive, violently active storm. What if three or four major strikes hit one side—and the onboard computer reacted like the crew of Enterprise? Everything was momentarily diverted to the injured side. Then—perfect storm—three or four major hits came in on the other side.
I’ll venture no plane made could survive that. A fluke, no doubt, but a very credible fluke. A jolt with enough power to light up much of Manhattan hits an unprotected fuel tank—Amen.
Storms—like the Titanic’s iceberg—are irrational. They can step outside of computer models and do things we could never plan for or protect against. They can be huge—with power that doesn’t fit any of our contingency plans. Human ingenuity may NEVER come up with a final guarantee that something is made that cannot, ever fall prey to nature’s violence.
It is hubris to think we can. The best remedy for a storm is NOT TO FLY THROUGH IT. Even if this means turning around to Brazil. I know that costs money. But so does the liability for hundreds of dead passengers and crew members.
AUTOS: WHISTLING IN THE WIND?
Somehow there is the expectation that General Motors will come out of bankruptcy back at fighting weight and, like Sampson, it will smite all of its competitors—thus paying back the taxpayers the $50 or so billion it owes them.
Nice thought. What’s going to make the East and West coasts—which have long ago given up American cars for niftier Japanese and German cars—fall back in love with GM again? It may be a few decades too late even to try. Gen Y consumers apparently have no feelings for GM at all.
That’s the next market. Lose them and it’s like watching a dying church—where everybody inside has gray or white hair. Not a lot of future there. Another factor—I just bought gas for $1.95. It’s gone up fifty cents or more in a few weeks. That’s no way a plus for American car makers!
“BusinessWeek” brought something to my attention this week. Planetary auto sales right now are at about 55 million. World-wide auto production capacity is at 90 million. There is going to be some savage discounting and competition to start using that excess capacity!
General Motors is really not in very good shape to start wrestling in that kind of arena. It will begin the race, coming out of bankruptcy, owing—and having to make payments on—over $50 billion in debt to the government. That’s not just an albatross around the neck; that’s a five hundred pound albatross.
Those payments have to be made before a cent is paid in wages or a dime in raw materials and benefits. Let alone profits. Ouch.
There is no guarantee that GM, once out of bankruptcy will survive. Many businesses that emerge from the process don’t make it more than five years or so.
CHRYSLER/FIAT?
Now Chrysler will have all sorts of little Fiats to sell at its dealerships. And why should Americans like Fiats more than they did thirty years ago? I remember riding the circle around the Coliseum in Rome some decades ago. The cars all looked so incredibly tiny.
Then I saw what seemed to be a large vehicle. I looked again—it was a Volkswagen bug. Fiats just didn’t make it here. Furthermore, it doesn’t look like Fiat is going to win out on the bidding for Opel either. So it will just be Fiat and Chrysler—with a little help from Jeep.
Ouch. And they have their debt load, too.
Fiat apparently hasn’t made up its mind whether or not to keep the Chrysler brand on the road. What they seem to be buying is a chain of dealerships. That’s no vote of confidence.
Will the American auto industry go the way of television manufacturing, shoe making, the garment trade or, increasingly, computer manufacturing? Nothing’s impossible. Ford, anyone?