Do Presidents Really Matter?

It’s been eight years since we last looked forward to an imminent change in administration in Washington. Let’s see, Republicans were going to bring back honor and respect to the White House. Republicans would cure the recession rising out a of burst bubble on Wall Street.
Republicans would bring national security—after all, an American ship had been attacked and nearly sunk while at anchor near the mouth of the Persian Gulf just the previous year. American planes flew over Iraq day and night with the constant threat of escalation. A perfectly horrible regime had taken over Afghanistan, but it seemed to be no immediate threat to us.
There was incessant violence between Israel and the Palestinian political island on either side of it—Gaza and the West Bank. A collapse of Asiatic equities and finance had roiled the world financial markets.
Oh, yes, and eight years ago there was a whiff of political scandal. A state big enough to decide an election with a presidential candidate’s brother as governor had thrown out ballots on a scale not seen since the days of “Landslide Lyndon” in Texas (in 1948, a Supreme Court justice had ordered 20,000 paper ballots, clearly tampered with, to remain sealed—and Lyndon Johnson had squeaked into the Senate by 67 votes, as the boxes of suspect ballots lay in a Texas courtroom sealed by Federal Court order).
And, just as it had made a senator and future president in ’48, the Court of 2000 had made an immediate president. But that’s the fun of American politics—they are often more entertaining to watch than Newman and Redford in “The Sting”.
Those of us of a conservative Republican bent breathed more easily now that a respectable and decent fellow Christian Republican had taken office. Then came 911 and a clearly unthought-out military response. We were in reflex mode, writhing in pain as we watched two proud symbols of American economic ascendancy come crashing down.
Then came another economic bubble. (Oh but how the last few administrations had boasted of giving every American his own hugely overpriced and over leveraged home—whether that family could afford it or not.) And as we come to the end of this administration the whole unregulated house of cards that we had held up as a model to an envious the world came crashing down.
Decades of self-delusion (by no means exclusively Republican!!) and fantasy came crashing down upon us. Our mightiest corporations are left gasping for the last few molecules of oxygen in their air tanks. Only federal giveaways—from as laissez-faire a President we’ve had in the White House since the 1920s—seem able to delay the debacle.
But—but—but think back to the end of 2000, going into an inauguration month just ahead. Many of us were as optimistic then as many of us our now. We have a new President coming in. He will fix everything—make us safe without violating the Constitution, restore honor to the White House, for he’s a decent family man with an attractive wife and two fetching daughters.
See how he’s gathering around himself a team of experienced advisors from previous successful administrations? Surely these men will know how to reverse the damage done to the Federal Emergency Management Agency when it was folded into a bloated Homeland Security Agency! Just as Bush’s team of experienced advisors from previous administrations saved us during the past eight years.
No more Katrinas, no more collapsing banks or brokerages, no more endless war in the Middle East, no more bankrupt giants like General Motors, a return to total American dominance with unchallenged financial and military hegemony—which is what many of the miracles promised by Obama and his team will require. (Bush needed—and was cruelly denied—the same thing.)
But most importantly, most importantly of all, with such wise men in place watching over us, THIS TIME nothing unexpected like some commandeered jet liners flying into the Pentagon or the World Trade Center will ever happen.
What could possibly come out of nowhere, totally unexpectedly (expect, perhaps, for an ignored memo or two from a couple of low level bureaucrats who never caught anyone’s ear or eye) with a fine, church going gentleman like George Bu—oops, with a fine, church going gentleman like Barrack Obama on guard?
Promises get overturned by events (sometimes even by guile or what is left unsaid). Remember the three men who got elected in the Twentieth Century by the simple, clear promise to keep us safely out of war? Wilson (1916—at war by 1917), Roosevelt (1940—at war by 1941) and Johnson (1964—at war by 1965).
We didn’t know what was coming in 2000. We don’t know what’s coming in 2009. Perhaps that’s a blessing, if ignorance truly is bliss. But something unexpected will come. That is certain, that is sure. In a world full of pirates, terrorists, and competitors with economic clout like nothing we’ve seen in over a century, it may very well not be fun.
I wish I could be sure that having Barrack Obama in office is really going to make a whole, big lot of difference. I don’t honestly think that having Lincoln, Roosevelt or Washington in office next year would make a whole, big lot of difference.
Always remember what Napoleon asked when he was vetting a candidate for a job in his government. He let his underlings check into the man’s education, experience, previous successes and failures. Napoleon only had one question: “Is he lucky?”
We may need more help from Luck and Providence than we’re going to get from all the ability and experience in the world.
Happy New Year.